TY - JOUR
T1 - Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus
AU - Reiner, Robert C.
AU - Stoddard, Steven T.
AU - Forshey, Brett M.
AU - King, Aaron A.
AU - Ellis, Alicia M.
AU - Lloyd, Alun L.
AU - Long, Kanya C.
AU - Rocha, Claudio
AU - Vilcarromero, Stalin
AU - Astete, Helvio
AU - Bazan, Isabel
AU - Lenhart, Audrey
AU - Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.
AU - Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.
AU - McCall, Philip
AU - Kitron, Uriel
AU - Elder, John P.
AU - Halsey, Eric S.
AU - Morrison, Amy C.
AU - Kochel, Tadeusz J.
AU - Scott, Thomas W.
PY - 2014/7/1
Y1 - 2014/7/1
N2 - Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0–0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49–4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.
AB - Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0–0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49–4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.
KW - Arthropod-borne virus
KW - Disease ecology
KW - Emerging infections
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1314933111
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1314933111
M3 - Article
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 111
SP - E2694-E2702
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 26
ER -
