Targeting elimination of mother-to-child HIV transmission efforts using geospatial analysis of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe

Background: We assessed Zimbabwe's progress toward elimination of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) under Option A. Methods: We analyzed 2012 and 2014 cross-sectional serosurvey data from mother-infant pairs residing in the same 157 health facility catchment areas randomly sampled from five provinces. Eligible women were at least 16 years and mothers/caregivers of infants born 9-18 months prior. We aggregated individual-level questionnaire and HIV serostatus within catchment areas or district to estimate MTCT and the number of HIV-infected infants; these data were mapped using facility global positioning system coordinates. Results: A weighted population of 8800 and 10 404 mother-infant pairs was included from 2012 and 2014, respectively. In 2014, MTCT among HIV-exposed infants was 6.7% (95% confidence interval: 5.2, 8.6), not significantly different from 2012 (8.8%, 95% confidence interval: 6.9, 11.1, P = 0.13). From 2012 to 2014, self-reported antiretroviral therapy or prophylaxis among HIV-infected women increased from 59 to 65% (P = 0.05), as did self-reported infant antiretroviral prophylaxis (63 vs. 67%, P = 0.08). In 2014, 65 (41%), 55 (35%), and 37 (24%) catchment areas had the same, lower, and higher MTCT rate as in 2012, respectively. MTCT in 2014 varied by catchment areas (median = 0%, mean = 4.9%, interquartile range = 0-10%) as did the estimated number of HIV-infected infants (median = 0, mean = 1.1, interquartile range = 0-1.0). Also in 2014, 106 (68%) catchment areas had MTCT = 0%. Geovisualization revealed clustering of catchment areas where both MTCT and the estimated number of HIV-infected infants were relatively high. Conclusion: Although MTCT is declining in Zimbabwe, geospatial analysis indicates facility-level variability. Catchment areas with high MTCT rates and a high burden of HIV-infected infants should be the highest priority for service intensification.