Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation in resource poor settings: Towards an Artificial Intelligence-enabled and Geospatial-assisted decision support framework

Objectives:

To propose a novel framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation based on three components of Vulnerability, Vaccination, and Values (3Vs).

Methods:

A combination of geospatial data analysis and artificial intelligence methods for evaluating vulnerability factors at the local level and allocate vaccines according to a dynamic mechanism for updating vulnerability and vaccine uptake.

Results:

A novel approach is introduced including (I) Vulnerability data collection (including country-specific data on demographic, socioeconomic, epidemiological, healthcare, and environmental factors), (II) Vaccination prioritization through estimation of a unique Vulnerability Index composed of a range of factors selected and weighed through an Artificial Intelligence (AI-enabled) expert elicitation survey and scientific literature screening, and (III) Values consideration by identification of the most effective GIS-assisted allocation of vaccines at the local level, considering context-specific constraints and objectives.

Conclusions:

We showcase the performance of the 3Vs strategy by comparing it to the actual vaccination rollout in Kenya. We show that under the current strategy, socially vulnerable individuals comprise only 45% of all vaccinated people in Kenya while if the 3Vs strategy was implemented, this group would be the first to receive vaccines.