Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Laura Cooper; Su Yun Kang; Donal Bisanzio; Kilama Maxwell; Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer; Bryan Greenhouse; Chris Drakeley; Emmanuel Arinaitwe; Sarah Staedke; Peter W. Gething; Philip Eckhoff; Robert C. Reiner; Simon I. Hay; Grant Dorsey; Moses R. Kamya; Steven W. Lindsay; Bryan T. Grenfell; David L. Smith

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Laura Cooper
, Su Yun Kang
, Donal Bisanzio
, Kilama Maxwell
, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer
, Bryan Greenhouse
, Chris Drakeley
, Emmanuel Arinaitwe
, Sarah Staedke
, Peter W. Gething
, Philip Eckhoff
, Robert C. Reiner
, Simon I. Hay
, Grant Dorsey
, Moses R. Kamya
, Steven W. Lindsay
, Bryan T. Grenfell
, David L. Smith

Princeton University
University of Cambridge
University of Oxford
RTI International
University of Nottingham
Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration
Johns Hopkins University
University of California at San Francisco
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Institute for Disease Modeling
University of Washington
Makerere University
Durham University
National Institutes of Health

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

48 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

Original language	English
Article number	3939
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2019
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

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Cooper, L., Kang, S. Y., Bisanzio, D., Maxwell, K., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Greenhouse, B., Drakeley, C., Arinaitwe, E., Staedke, S., Gething, P. W., Eckhoff, P., Reiner, R. C., Hay, S. I., Dorsey, G., Kamya, M. R., Lindsay, S. W., Grenfell, B. T., & Smith, D. L. (2019). Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading. Nature Communications, 10(1), Article 3939. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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title = "Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading",

abstract = "Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80\% of transmission is accounted for by 20\% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.",

author = "Laura Cooper and Kang, \{Su Yun\} and Donal Bisanzio and Kilama Maxwell and Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer and Bryan Greenhouse and Chris Drakeley and Emmanuel Arinaitwe and Sarah Staedke and Gething, \{Peter W.\} and Philip Eckhoff and Reiner, \{Robert C.\} and Hay, \{Simon I.\} and Grant Dorsey and Kamya, \{Moses R.\} and Lindsay, \{Steven W.\} and Grenfell, \{Bryan T.\} and Smith, \{David L.\}",

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Cooper, L, Kang, SY, Bisanzio, D, Maxwell, K, Rodriguez-Barraquer, I, Greenhouse, B, Drakeley, C, Arinaitwe, E, Staedke, S, Gething, PW, Eckhoff, P, Reiner, RC, Hay, SI, Dorsey, G, Kamya, MR, Lindsay, SW, Grenfell, BT & Smith, DL 2019, 'Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading', Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 1, 3939. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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T1 - Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

AU - Cooper, Laura

AU - Kang, Su Yun

AU - Bisanzio, Donal

AU - Maxwell, Kilama

AU - Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel

AU - Greenhouse, Bryan

AU - Drakeley, Chris

AU - Arinaitwe, Emmanuel

AU - Staedke, Sarah

AU - Gething, Peter W.

AU - Eckhoff, Philip

AU - Reiner, Robert C.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Dorsey, Grant

AU - Kamya, Moses R.

AU - Lindsay, Steven W.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Smith, David L.

PY - 2019/12/1

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N2 - Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

AB - Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

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DO - 10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

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VL - 10

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

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ER -

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Abstract

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