Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations

Aims The Mathematical and Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation (MEMVIE) programme aimed to explore, capture and support the potential contribution of the public to mathematical and economic modelling, in order to identify the values that underpin public involvement (PI) in modelling and co-produce a framework that identifies the nature and type of PI in modelling and supports its implementation.

Methods We established a PI Reference Group, who worked collaboratively with the academic contributors to create a deliberative knowledge space, which valued different forms of knowledge, expertise and evidence. Together, we explored the key steps of mathematical and economic methods in 21 meetings during 2015-2020. These deliberations generated rich discussion, through which we identified potential points of public contribution and the values that underpin PI in modelling. We iteratively developed a framework to guide future practice of PI in modelling.

Results We present the MEMVIE Public Involvement Framework in two forms; a short form to summarise key elements a long form Framework to provide a detailed description of each potential type of public contribution at each stage of the modelling process. At a macro level the public can contribute to reviewing context, reviewing relevance, assessing data and justifying model choice, troubleshooting, interpreting and reviewing outcomes and decision making. The underpinning values that drive involvement include the public contributing to the validity of the model, potentially enhancing its relevance, utility and transparency through diverse inputs, enhancing the credibility, consistency and continuous development through scrutiny, in addition to contextualising the model within a wider societal view. We also present guidance for teams to implement the Framework during deliberative meetings.

Discussion and Conclusion Public involvement in modelling is in its infancy. The MEMVIE Framework is the first attempt to identify potential points of collaborative public contribution to modelling, but it requires further evaluation and refinement that we are undertaking in a subsequent study.